pre·dic·tion

/prəˈdikSH(ə)n/ noun
A statement about the future often based on knowledge or experience

Wharton professor Philip Tetlock throws “forecasting tournaments” to test people’s ability to predict complex events. His research suggests that people who know a topic only superficially are actually better at predicting outcomes than experts in that field.

This seems consistent with the Dunning-Kruger effect: The less we know about a particular topic, the more we think we know. The more we learn about the topic, the more we realize we don’t know anything.

Let’s take a look back at four predictions for 2021 and see how well they aged:

TAMPA BAY HOUSING MARKET SEEMINGLY INVULNERABLE TO COVID

• Forecast—The Tampa Bay real estate market will not be negatively affected by the effects of coronavirus.

• Outcome—Nailed it. The average home value in Tampa jumped nearly 30% in 2021.

ARE WE HEADED FOR THE GREAT DEPRESSION 2.0?

• Forecast—The economy will grow at a rate of 3.1%-3.6% in the 1st quarter of 2021.

• Outcome—Wrong. GDP grew at a rate of 1.9% in the 1st quarter of last year.

TAMPA BAY REAL ESTATE MARKET EXPECTED TO BE NATION’S 4TH HOTTEST

• Forecast—2021’s hottest real estate markets will be Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa and Denver.

• Outcome—Half right. Austin was indeed 1st. Phoenix was 7th. Nashville, Denver and Tampa didn’t make the Top 10.

“ILLUMINATING” NAMED 2021 COLOR OF THE YEAR

• Forecast—Illuminating sets the mood in any room, adding a dose of sunshine and positivity.

• Outcome—Homebuyers threw shade at this bright yellow, saying it would actually make them reduce their offer by $2000.

Christy Rosen Clement is a Pricing Strategy Advisor®, Seller Representative Specialist®, Military Relocation Professional® and REALTOR® at Palermo Real Estate Professionals in South Tampa